The Circle

Exit Summary

Entry $17.63Exit $67.09Exited Feb 2026

TOU got kicked to the curb – not because it did anything wrong, but because we weren't sure we wanted the North American gas exposure and the base dividend wasn't high enough to keep us around. The North American winter was warm, so there was no weather trade on for gas. We used TOU as a source of funds as we looked to raise cash.

Closed Position: Since Initial Coverage+257.5%

Updated: Feb 26, 2026

Analysis Log

9 Library articles · Aug 2020 – Feb 2026

LIBRARY · FEB 2026 · $63.03

Focusing on Value in Volatile Times

WCP has been a rockstar, but I did sell it and found something that I liked better for yield. TOU was also kicked to the curb even though it didn't do anything bad to me... I just wasn't sure that I wanted the North American gas exposure and the base dividend wasn't high enough to get me to stick around (although TOU does declare "special" dividends from time to time which serve to supplement the base dividend). Both of these are very high quality companies and I could easily have held onto them – and I would seriously consider buying them on a general market dip. For me though, these are "beta" names and I'm trying to be more selective right now, so they are off of my list of holdings. For those who have held them, well done, you've done better than me.

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LIBRARY · JAN 2026 · $59.04

Full Throttle, Empty Tank

I still like both of these, but did use them as a source of funds as I looked to raise some cash. The North American winter has been warm so far, so there's no weather trade on for the gas right now and oil has been range-bound. I could be buying or selling these names on any given day, but overall the stop-loss levels that I mentioned before still make sense to me for long positions in these high-quality energy stories.

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LIBRARY · DEC 2025 · $59.69

The Art of Doing Nothing

These two recent energy adds for me, and both are high-quality companies. They are beta-ish bets in that I don't have specific catalysts for either of them.

TOU is simply best-in-class Canadian energy exposure with one of the best management teams in the industry. TOU pays a regular quarterly dividend (roughly a 3% yield) and declares special dividends when results warrant it. TOU is gassy (77% gas, 23% liquids), has excellent exposure to U.S. gas markets, benefits from LNG export potential, and it is a core holding for generalists and specialists alike. With gas in focus as power demand continues to grow globally with few other readily scalable alternatives, TOU is a good way to ride the "power" theme.

WCP is very well managed and has been quietly executing. It has one of the highest free cash flow yields in its peer group, has reasonable gas exposure (40% gas, 60% liquids), and pays a monthly dividend (roughly a 6% yield) to boot. Brokers are getting increasingly excited about WCP and I think money managers will too once they see another quarter or two of execution. WCP is one of the cheapest companies in its peer group for no good reason.

The energy sector has good momentum right now and I'll hold both of these as long as it does. If I'm wrong and these stocks start heading south, I would stop both positions out 10-15% lower than where they are trading today and re-evaluate the sector outlook.

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LIBRARY* · AUG 2023