Tenaz Energy - Investment Case Studies

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Before you consider joining, read the work. This archive contains years of our market analysis and unvarnished post-mortems on both winners and losers. It is the foundation upon which The Circle is built, and the single best way to understand our approach.

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Malcolm Shaw
November 11, 2024

Tenaz's Evolution

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The successful issuance of senior notes marks a critical evolution for Tenaz Energy, signaling that a major international acquisition is imminent. This analysis explores the company's unique niche in acquiring and optimizing non-core assets from global majors—a strategy that offers a clear path to mid-cap status.

Malcolm Shaw
October 19, 2024

Steady as She Goes

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The current market remains permissive for "alpha" generation in high-quality special situations. This briefing reinforces the conviction in Tenaz Energy’s M&A-driven growth path and highlights the tactical re-rating potential in the gold sector as bullion hits record highs.

Malcolm Shaw
August 21, 2024

Eye of the Tiger

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Patience remains the most valuable asset in volatile commodity markets. This update explores why Tenaz Energy remains the premier energy play of the year following its latest accretive deal and highlights the world-class project economics revealed in Vizsla Silver’s latest Preliminary Economic Assessment.

Malcolm Shaw
July 19, 2024

Tenaz's Snowball Grows

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TNZ.TO

The acquisition of NOBV represents a transformational milestone for Tenaz Energy, achieved with zero equity dilution. This briefing examines the deal’s ingenious structure and the resulting boost to reserves and production, which leaves the stock trading at a significant discount to its after-tax NPV10.

Malcolm Shaw
May 13, 2024

The Summer Playlist

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As the TSX Venture index forms a "golden cross," the stage is set for a multi-sector resource bull market. This update reaffirms conviction in Tenaz Energy’s growth trajectory and highlights the "bonkers" upside potential in high-torque copper exploration following significant major investment.

Malcolm Shaw
March 11, 2024

Spring Is in the Air

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Record gold prices and a weakening dollar are signaling the start of a broad-based commodity bull market. This update identifies the best-positioned gold producers and developers, while maintaining extreme conviction in "wolves in sheep's clothing" like Tenaz Energy within the energy space.

Malcolm Shaw
January 5, 2024

Patience in Speculation

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In the world of high-conviction speculation, delays are often a test of patience. This update reaffirms the thesis for Tenaz Energy’s international M&A strategy and provides a defense of Tag Oil, where the market’s reaction to drilling delays has created an attractive entry point relative to the project's underlying NPV.

Malcolm Shaw
October 25, 2023

Trick or Treat

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Identifying the key catalysts for the end of 2023 across oil, gas, gold, and uranium. From the imminent M&A news at Tenaz to high-frenzy copper porphyry drilling and Venezuelan oil deals, the focus is on the few "special situations" positioned for outsized year-end performance.

Malcolm Shaw
August 13, 2023

Summertime Magic

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Defying the traditional summer doldrums, the energy sector is benefiting from cooling inflation and disciplined supply management by OPEC+. This update focuses on the extreme value in international oil plays, the strategic "free option" on Namibia’s latest offshore discoveries, and the constructive setup for uranium.

Malcolm Shaw
July 28, 2023

Tenaz's Snowball

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A look at the "Masterclass in non-dilutive financing" used to expand Tenaz Energy’s footprint in the North Sea. By effectively utilizing decommissioning liabilities as a form of float, the management is creating a Berkshire-like "snowball" effect that provides massive leverage for future accretive growth.

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