Before you consider joining, read the work. This archive contains years of our market analysis and unvarnished post-mortems on both winners and losers. It is the foundation upon which The Circle is built, and the single best way to understand our approach.
We invite you to judge for yourself.
TNZ.TO
A look at the "Masterclass in non-dilutive financing" used to expand Tenaz Energy’s footprint in the North Sea. By effectively utilizing decommissioning liabilities as a form of float, the management is creating a Berkshire-like "snowball" effect that provides massive leverage for future accretive growth.
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Amidst widespread recession fears, the underlying index charts suggest a market for disciplined stock pickers. This update maintains high conviction in the energy sector, specifically targeting deep value in Tenaz Energy. Additionally, the technical setup for gold suggests the sector is primed for a significant breakout.
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AAV.TO|AEM.TO|AOI.TO|ARX.TO|ASCU.V|ASND.V|CJ.TO|CMMC.TO|CRE.V|CS.TO|FWZ.V|NICU.V|PNRL.V|SURG.V|TAO.V|TNZ.TO|UEC.US|VLE.TO
Despite persistent recession chatter, the technical setup for gold and the extreme value in the energy sector suggest a prime environment for disciplined stock picking. This briefing maintains focus on Tenaz Energy’s 1x EV/CF valuation and the bullish signals emerging in the gold market.
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TAO.V|TNZ.TO|VLE.TO
The era of "Juniors who Explore and Develop Internationally" is returning. Highlighting the "holy trinity" of Tenaz, Valeura, and Tag Oil, this analysis explores how disciplined teams are acquiring world-class international assets at deep discounts, positioning themselves for multi-bagger re-rates as they execute on development.
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TNZ.TO|VLE.TO
The M&A arbitrage revealed in Valeura’s Thai acquisition provides a blueprint for how quality junior teams can unlock immense value from non-core major assets. This development serves as a strong validation of the strategy currently being pursued by Tenaz Energy.
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An anemic speculative market has created a "bargain bin" of high-quality junior resource stocks. From overlooked gold discoveries in the Golden Triangle to the "mind-blowingly stupid" valuation of Tenaz Energy, the current environment is ideal for identifying assets trading significantly below their conservative fair value.
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To navigate market noise, the focus remains on isolated, high-conviction "special situations" in uranium, lithium, and energy. Whether it is yield-driven plays like Cardinal Energy or imminent drill catalysts in Guyana and the Golden Triangle, the emphasis is on identifying assets where the value proposition is independent of broader index movements.
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In response to recession fears, a defensive shift toward assets with independent catalysts is warranted. The focus is on "uncorrelated" acquirers like Tenaz Energy and international explorers with imminent drill results, alongside long-term bets on lithium and uranium that are insulated from broader economic cycles.
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The broad market rotation from growth to value has left commodities and energy as rare pillars of strength, yet the current volatility requires a tactical approach. By maintaining elevated cash levels, investors can capitalize on irrational selling while protecting against systemic drawdowns. My focus remains on the structural bull case for natural gas and high-conviction value plays in the Thai offshore and fertilizer sectors where valuations remain disconnected from underlying cash flow.
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Drawing parallels to the 1970s commodity boom, this update argues that geopolitical shocks and chronic underexposure will drive a long-term secular bull market. The focus remains on carbon capture technology, discounted lithium permits, and high-impact oil exploration in the second half of the year.
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Let's be pragmatic. Malcolm's 5-year CAGR is +82.42%. We are not promising you will replicate that. However, as a thought experiment, consider the math: at the Annual Rate, the barrier to profitability is trivial.
A portfolio of ~$7,275 capturing just one-quarter of that return would generate more than the cost of your annual membership.
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