Tenaz Energy - Investment Case Studies

Do Your Own Due Diligence

Before you consider joining, read the work. This archive contains years of our market analysis and unvarnished post-mortems on both winners and losers. It is the foundation upon which The Circle is built, and the single best way to understand our approach.

We invite you to judge for yourself.

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Malcolm Shaw
February 1, 2021

Resource Report Sheds New Light on High-Grade Oxides at ORO's Tres Cruces

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Resource Report Sheds New Light on High-Grade Oxides at ORO's Tres Cruces

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OLA.TO|ORO.V|PRYM.V

A comprehensive analysis of the shallow, high-grade oxide resource at Tres Cruces. This "jet fuel" project offers high operating margins and low capex requirements, serving as a critical starter operation that could unlock the massive underlying sulphide resource and attract a strategic partner.

Malcolm Shaw
December 22, 2020

On Being an Ox in 2021

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On Being an Ox in 2021

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AAV.TO|ATU.V|AZZ.TO|BIR.TO|CCO.TO|CMMC.TO|CUR.V|DCMC.TO|DML.TO|ENB.TO|EU.V|FOM.V|FPX.V|GATO.TO|GLO.TO|KRR.TO|MAXR.TO|MEG.TO|NTR.TO|NXE.TO|ORO.V|PDM.TO|PG.TO|PTK.V|QBTC.TO|TAO.V|TECK.B.TO|TGL.TO|TLO.TO|TOU.TO|TXP.TO|URC.TO|VS.C

The investment theme for 2021 is "The Metal Ox"—a commitment to dependable, unyielding sectors like energy and materials. As institutional capital begins to rotate into these long-neglected markets, the focus is on the cheapest oil stocks, Tier-1 uranium deposits, and high-margin silver plays.

Malcolm Shaw
December 8, 2020

A Transglobe Rerate is in the Cards

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A Transglobe Rerate is in the Cards

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TGL.TO

The "transformational" restructuring of the Petroglobe production sharing contract in Egypt significantly alters the investment case for Transglobe Energy. By drastically increasing netbacks and cash flow projections, the company is now trading at an extreme discount to its implied enterprise value. This analysis examines the potential for a major re-rating as the market begins to price in the company's enhanced cash-generative capacity.

Malcolm Shaw
December 4, 2020

Touchstone Hits More Gas while Transglobe Bags a New Deal

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Touchstone Hits More Gas while Transglobe Bags a New Deal

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POE.V|TGL.TO|TXP.TO

A bullish outlook on global reflation and the impending oil supply imbalance. This briefing highlights the tactical acquisition of "absurdly cheap" oil stocks during tax-loss season and the transformational new concession agreement for Transglobe Energy in Egypt.

Malcolm Shaw
October 29, 2020

Now What?

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Now What?

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AAV.TO|AGI.TO|ARX.TO|BIR.TO|CMMC.TO|CNC.TO|CRE.V|CS.TO|FM.TO|FPX.V|HBM.TO|IMG.TO|KRR.TO|LAC.TO|MAXR.TO|NLC.V|NPK.TO|NTR.TO|PGZ.V|SDE.V|SURG.V|TAO.V|TLO.TO|TOU|TOU.TO|TXP.TO

Market volatility is exposing the divide between overvalued tech and the structural underinvestment in energy and materials. Post-election stimulus and pent-up demand are expected to drive scarcity and inflation, favoring a portfolio of low-cost gas producers, cheap gold miners, and strategic space-tech plays like Maxar.

Malcolm Shaw
August 18, 2020

What Summer Doldrums?

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What Summer Doldrums?

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AAV.TO|ATU.V|BIR.TO|BNAU.TO|CNC.V|CNQ.TO|CPG.TO|CYP.V|EMN.V|FPX.V|LAC.TO|MAI.V|MAXR.TO|NLC.V|NRN.V|NTR.TO|ORO.V|PG.TO|SDE.V|TECK.B.TO|TLO.TO|TOU.TO|TXP.TO|WCP.TO|YGR.TO

Global liquidity and deferred demand are driving a powerful reflation trade. This extensive portfolio update covers the "battery metals trifecta," the deep value in Peruvian gold, and high-conviction space-tech bets that are poised to break out from heavy short interest.

Malcolm Shaw
July 24, 2020

Elon's Call to Arms: Miners, Go Get More Nickel

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Elon's Call to Arms: Miners, Go Get More Nickel

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CNC.V|FPX.V|GIGA.V|NAN.TO|S.TO|TLO.TO

As the electric vehicle transition accelerates, the demand for "environmentally friendly" nickel is becoming a critical bottleneck. While policy shifts and CEO pleas dominate the headlines, the chronic underinvestment in supply remains the primary driver. This analysis details a Canadian nickel basket focused on low-carbon metallurgy and scalable Tier-1 deposits.

Malcolm Shaw
July 20, 2020

Touchstone's Free Cash Flow Engine: Cascadura Reserves Report Delivers

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Touchstone's Free Cash Flow Engine: Cascadura Reserves Report Delivers

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CNE.TO|TXP.TO

The maiden Cascadura reserves report has surpassed expectations, confirming a massive cash flow stream that requires minimal capital to unlock. This analysis compares the company's development path to high-growth industry leaders, suggesting a significant valuation gap still exists.

Malcolm Shaw
June 13, 2020

Taking Stock After Rough Waters

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Taking Stock After Rough Waters

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ARX.TO|ATU.V|CHE.UN.TO|ENB.TO|NTR.TO|ORO.V|ORS.V|SDE.TO|TECK.B.TO|TXP.TO|YGR.TO

Global liquidity and deferred demand are fueling a rotation from growth into hard assets. This strategy highlights the extreme value in gold holdings approaching strategic deadlines and the imminent "oil squeeze" expected from years of underinvestment in the energy sector.

Malcolm Shaw
May 11, 2020

Fun with Touchstone Numbers

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Fun with Touchstone Numbers

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TXP.L|TXP.TO

A detailed scenario analysis of Touchstone Exploration suggests the risk-reward profile is now highly asymmetric. Based on the Cascadura discovery alone, the stock appears significantly undervalued relative to similar historical takeouts, leaving investors with substantial "free" option value on upcoming high-impact exploration targets.

The Math on The Membership

Let's be pragmatic. Malcolm's 5-year CAGR is +82.42%. We are not promising you will replicate that. However, as a thought experiment, consider the math: at the Annual Rate, the barrier to profitability is trivial.

A portfolio of ~$7,275 capturing just one-quarter of that return would generate more than the cost of your annual membership.

What Others Say

"Deep research, insightful analysis, and integrity. That’s what Malcolm has delivered for the 20 years I've been following him."

— Gordon B

"Malcolm became an invaluable mentor from afar, teaching me that true success in investing isn’t about chasing headlines, it’s about doing the hard work."

— Dennis B


"It's been awesome being in Malcolm's inner circle — I've learned so much about both mining and energy plays over the years. He helped me navigate the rollercoaster through COVID when everything felt uncertain. Having access to his ideas has been a total game-changer."

— Peter N
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